Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
