It was 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to address. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.