A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
